An assumption is a belief you have not checked. A tested observation is something that happened when you tried it, with a number, a place and a result.
This lesson is part of SPM subjects and learning resources. It pairs with linking an objective to supporting evidence, where the evidence comes from.
What are the three questions?
Ask these of any claim.
- Did anyone do something, or only say something?
- How many, where and when?
- Could someone else repeat it and get a similar result?
If the answer to the first is “only say”, or the second has no numbers, treat the claim as an assumption.
Worked example: a fictional snack-kit enterprise
Imagine a fictional enterprise, Kit Kudap, invented for this lesson. It plans to sell do-it-yourself snack kits to students at RM8 each.
| Claim | Type | Why |
|---|---|---|
| “Students love snacks they can make themselves” | Assumption | No numbers, only a belief |
| “Of 25 classmates asked, 14 said they would buy at RM8” | Weak observation | A questionnaire, what people say |
| “At break on Tuesday, 9 of 25 classmates paid a RM2 deposit” | Tested observation | Money was paid |
| “Ingredients cost RM3.20 per kit” | Tested observation | From receipts |
| “Other schools will also buy” | Assumption | Not tried |
| “The kit is better than shop snacks” | Assumption | No comparison made |
Compare the questionnaire and the deposit: 14 out of 25 said yes, but only 9 out of 25 paid. The gap, 14 − 9 = 5 students, is people who said yes but did not act.
The deposit result is the stronger evidence of demand, because it shows behaviour at the price of RM2, not only intention.
The mistake: treating saying as doing
A weak answer reads the questionnaire result as proof that 14 of 25 will buy. The tested result shows fewer, 9 of 25, when money was asked for.
| Version | Claim | Support |
|---|---|---|
| Said | 14 of 25 will buy | A questionnaire of opinions |
| Did | 9 of 25 paid a deposit | Money handed over |
It does not mean the questionnaire was useless. It is a start, and it tells the owner where to test next. The error is reporting it as if the test had been done.
What do I do with an assumption?
Write it down and find the cheapest way to test it. “Other schools will buy” could be tested by offering kits to one other class for one day. An untested claim is not wrong, but it should be labelled as untested.
Check yourself
Label each claim: (a) “Customers prefer our packaging.” (b) “We sold 18 kits in a two-hour trial at a school event.” (c) “Parents will pay more for healthy kits.”
Answer
(a) Assumption: no test or count is given. (b) Tested observation: there is a number, a setting and a result.
(c) Assumption: it is a belief about what parents will do. It could be tested by offering two kit prices at one event and counting sales of each.
What to study next
Practise sorting claims in the original mixed-skill practice, and revisit the need behind a fictional enterprise idea to see which parts of a need you could test.
If you want a teacher to sort your claims with you, see online one-to-one Entrepreneurship tuition.